
... not Iraq, Caltech -- ground zero in The Environmental Wars next week. Still time to think about joining the free market[intellectual] militia in attendance. This unusual conference presents serious questioners of the media 'consensus' on hot button environmental issues -- along with some of the journalists and opinionmakers who support the status quo.
The conference is unique in not presenting dissenting opinions as fringe, but as serious and welcome skepticism. Of course, that is what you might expect from a Skeptics Society but it is not what you usually get with regards to the environment.
Although I have been touting this skeptical soiree about town, some have recently and rationally questioned whether even this seemingly 'up the status quo' offering is the product of serious skepticism. The host's recent high profile skeptical apostasy in embracing Al Gore's interpretations of glacier melt (buttressed by an eclectic group of more serious thinkers who present hypotheses of other human signatures in the historic ecological record) was a disappointment.
His Flipping Point is rather flippant for anyone who was honestly skeptical of 'consensus' climate science. These ice pictures have been around for several years, as have studies suggesting that landed ice volume was increasing even while these pictoral anecdotes were being ballyhooed as evidence for the second coming of Noah. National Review has a good summation that was conveniently published contemporaneously with Michael Shermer's defection:

and is reproduced on Free Republic (IP warning, l lifted this picture from Free Republic who probably lifted it from National Review, but given the importance of the cause one hopes they'll take one for the gipper).
Not to mention (well I did mention) this first person ditty, admittedly anecdotal, on glaciation from the Times of India. (Well this is no doubt some Indianophile arguing that 2nd or 3rd world people should be able to develop economically too. What kind of backward thinking is that? After all, subsistence has such a light footprint.)
In Shermer's defense, i.e., in my own defense as someone who has promoted participation in this affair, it appears that his idea of activism on global warming does not extend to silencing dissent. Gore, on the other hand, ironically believes in ignoring such inconveniences in his Inconvenient Truth. When responding to a 'hardball' question from Katie Couric on yesterday's Today Show suggesting that some scientists felt he conveniently overstated consensus on the extent, causes and likely effects of warming (she didn't say it quite so pointedly), Gore simply replied: "There is no debate". That's a clever way to win an argument. I am sure you are surprised that this was good enough for Katie Couric who was unprepared herself to cite any specific challenges to Gore science and simply moved on to his presidential ambitions.
Even as Shermer's climate conversion buttresses the opinion of those suspicious of whether he was actually skeptical at all in this realm, for his temerity of presenting the likes of Michael Crichton, John Stossel, Ron Bailey, and Jon Adler- who are - he is being massacred by malthusians, lambasted by lefists (see especially comments to main posting) , while more moderate criticism ensues on the scientific american blog, and he is almost lauded by libertarians in the most remarkably unsensational remarks on the conference posted on the science blog at University of Colorado.
I have to say that Shermer responds admirably to this criticism, especially with this closing remark on the scientific american blog:
why is it always the left who whines so much about these matters? Why haven't I received a single complaint from anyone on the right about including all the noted lefties on our speaker's list? In the end, only the data counts, so come to Caltech the first weekend in June and decide for yourself what the data really says.
On the other hand, if widespread attention to this conference only enhances Shermer's reputation as a serious skeptic, and he then deploys those credentials in service of his switch to activism on global warming, am I doing more harm than good by jumping on the bandwagon? Is the skeptical movement itself such a small codicil of thinkers as to represent an intellectual backwater that opinionmakers may as well bypass? These are fair questions, but I think we dismiss this realm of philosophy at our peril. Rationalists, often assembled in what admittedly verge on anti-superstition cults, have an outsize influence in debates that the public believes belong in the realm of rationalism.
Despite what we consider to be flash points between religious and secular societal institutions, America has one of the most fluid boundaries between spiritual community and the polity. Despite the constant hammering on the difficulty of accommodating literalist evangelical interpretations in society at large, the American nation has the highest percentage of those self identifying as religious, while exhibiting a somewhat a la carte approach to their religious ideology. Americans generally respect the duality of religious and scientific realm and further, have a tendency to define the border between the two for themselves rather than as a consequence of urgings of religious leaders. This generalization may result from my regional observations and doesn't pretend to represent a serious study, but, if offhanded, it certainly is not a unique characterization.
Thus those who look to the church as a social anchor for shared community and values may well look to even, perhaps especially, atheistic sources for scientific answers. Astride this gap sit influential scientists such as catholic Kenneth Miller, a biology professor at Brown University, who testified for the plaintiffs fighting to stricken an intelligent design curriculum from public schools in Kitzmiller v. Dover. More to the point than Scopes redux, Miller is a lead author for an influential high school biology text widely employed in the nation's high schools. The book treats global warming as a companion to Darwin in the sense that it presents the matter as settled science. Yet there is a serious distinction between the maturity of our understanding of modeled climate and filling the gaps of theorized evolution. Or to make a more articulate analogy of the two realms, the debate over climate science is nothing like the debate between evolutionists and evangelicals. Rather, it is akin to the debate amongst those trying to tease out the actual mechanisms, drivers and graduality of particular evolutionary steps by coupling interpretation of the fossil record with modern understandings of variation at the genetic level. In other words the controversy over climate science is in the very same arena where there is scientific controversy over evolution.
In contrast to those who argue that our miraculous world is beyond the scientific understanding of mortal man (that would include the Intelligent Design community and earth worshipping environmentalists of the Lovelock sort), the contrarian community in the climate science realm debates on scientific grounds. The predominate disagreement amounts to the choice of null hypothesis. If the assumption is that human processes are unnatural or undesirable, and thus the question is does science prove that human carbon emissions will not have harmful consequences on a macro environmental scale, climate contrarians loose. But if the null hypothesis derives from the general idea that background processes including non-anthropogenic atmospheric cycles, cataclysmic geology and extra-planetary forcings are the overriding climate drivers and the question is instead whether science prove that human carbon emissions will have harmful consequences on a macro environmental scale, climate consensists loose.
Darwin's defenders, whether religious or not, run together with the skeptics crowd. For scientists like Miller, I tend to think the only source for credible alternative thinking on environmental issues is a strong diverse skeptical movement that casts the same skeptical eye in the environmental arena that it does elsewhere. Miller, after all, is not a climate scientist, but is clearly influenced by scientific institutions that have adopted the global warming doxology. He promotes the idea of a scientifically literate and informed lay community and would surely consider himself to have incorporated credible scientific sources for aspects of his texts that stray from his own area of expertise. Thus, regardless of Shermer's surrender without an apparent fight on global warming science, his willingness to maintain an arena for scientific skepticism on climate science is critical and I intend to support it.
Skepticism, whether associated with the movement that takes that title or not, remains an important force in the global warming debate, but that is by no means the only environmental hot button out there. It took 40 years for the culture to realize the the Carson inspired ban of DDT had a downside, Malaria. The CFC ban remains scientifically controversial even if the political question seems like water under the dam. The same issue of Scientific American in which Shermer signs on with the climate consensus reports casually that scientists generally agree causely that the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo has been far and away the largest notable signature in stratospheric ozone depletion during the period of heighten interest and study of this phenomenon (based on sulphur dioxide, not chlorine emissions - although there are indirect effects of the volcanic sulphate aerosols with stratospheric chlorine availability, reported isotopic anamolies in volcanic deposition clearly implicate a significant direct pathway). And issues abound that are today fostering economic dislocations that would are already giving some future regime of btu suppression a run for its money. From the true state of various 'endangered' species, to the environmental effects of oil drilling in Alaska and on the outer continental shelf, to the 'scientifically' motivated defense of every mudpuddle demand a renaissance of skepticism.
I cannot promise that Michael Shermer and the Skeptics Society are its font, but you've got to start somewhere. I'll be reporting from the front and you can decide whether I was duped or not.